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- Published on: 1824
- Binding: Hardcover
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24 of 25 people found the following review helpful.
By Dr Barry Clayton
This is a lively, witty and important book about why in order to survive nations need to be more than rich. At its heart is the growing concern in many parts of the USA that that great country is in decline . Such worries are reflected in, for example, Donald Trump's speeches, and that Hilary Clinton the democrat presidential candidate is disliked and distrusted by over half the electorate. If she wins, she will take into the White House her errant husband Bill who in the words of one of America's leading historians ' brought this country to its knees with his adultery and behaviour '. Last year more than 4,200 Americans renounced their citizenship. In 2008 the number was only some 1023. This increase is despite the filing fee increasing to $2,350.Buchholz is also concerned about other world problems and suggests possible solutions. For example, the US national debt has almost doubled under Obama. He raises several unpalatable things about the rich world that we would do well to note. Buchholz's thesis is that once prosperity has been achieved by peaceful, hard working, stable and socially unified societies it starts to eat away those things that made it possible in the first place. Rich nations begin to splinter. This is very similar to what certain Greek and Roman writers like Pliny and Cicero believed. Nevertheless, the author is despite all his warnings not a pessimist.As Buchholz says many countries such as Syria and the Sudan have broken apart It is his belief that history shows rich nations can also fall apart. It is a point of view that produces differing responses from economists and others. This is only to be expected since statistical data can, and is, be used and manipulated to paint gloomy or optimistic pictures of the future. It is the author's contention that in many cases countries are more likely to fall apart after they reach prosperity not before.The author is an economist and a student of history. He has acted as a government adviser on policy. He has taught at Harvard. He had a front seat at several key economic and financial crises in recent years. In an earlier book he examined the work of Marx, Keynes and Schumpeter, all of whom wrote about economic growth. Each forecast widely different futures. Marx failed to grasp the value of entrepreneurs and intellectual property, and his prediction that capitalism would bring about a fall in the standard of living for the poor proletarian proved hopelessly wrong. On the other hand, Keynes' belief that the economy would grow so abundant that we would bathe in luxury and work no more than a four hour workweek has proved badly wrong. Shumpeter argued that the grandchildren of the rich would turn to socialism. So far, few have. All three have proved to be wrong. The author examines the major forces that today threaten to bring about the downfall of rich nations. In several ways they are unique.To do this he uses economics, history, politics and the cultural dynamics of America and other countries. He hopes to demonstrate what we can do to keep a country from falling apart. He is particularly concerned about the lowering levels of patriotism. In America and in other rich nations there is , he argues a growing belief that instability threatens their country. He wants to encourage 'patriotist', that is a person who believes patriotism is a good thing. He is, for example, concerned about the number of British Muslim students who support sharia law, the number that have gone to Syria to wage jihad- more than are in the British army, and the hordes of migrants pouring into Europe from the Middle East. Buchholz says the 'United States no longer 'coheres', pointing out that the country has 1000 tv channels, and 330 million people who increasingly see no reason to listen to each other. Because of this trend he thinks America should replace the oak symbol with a splinter. The UK, Germany and France are no different. One reason for the splintering is the internet because it is a driver and enabler for radicalization. Families, he argues, have splintered . Meals are no longer shared. Every member is tuned in to their smartphone or laptop, even when in a restaurant. In brief, and others have pointed this out, community spirit is being fragmented.In America, schools have replaced the daily Pledge of Allegiance with statements of self esteem. Ego-building is now the mantra, as indeed it is in several European states. Pyschologists have found that around 80% of teenagers in America believed they are 'an important person'-narcissism is the vogue as witness 'selfies', Facebook and Twitter-50 years ago the percentage was 12. Buchholz critices the burgeoning red tape which he says is killing wealth-creation. In some States, 1,600 hours of instruction is required before one can practise as a hairstylist. To practise as a policeman requires only 600 hours.The author wittily says that consumer-narcissists who took out subprime mortgages are best described as 'Mr and Mrs I Deserve Four Bedrooms and a Jacuzzi Even Though I Have Never Saved a Dime in My Life'.However, he argues that the threatening centrifugal forces, important though they are, are not as novel as it may seem. Throughout history rich nations have splintered even without the aid of technology. This entropy explains why collapse has occurred even when the economy looks strong. This splintering leads to cheating, swindles, a general increase in crime and short term considerations which eventually undermine the economy and society.He argues that 5 key forces of entropy, or disorder, tend to undermine countries after they have achieved economic success. The following are examined to support his thesis: the Ming dynasty, Venice in the 18th century, the Tokugawa shoguns in the 1800s, and the Ottomans in the late 19th century. Each of these powerful empires were very rich but they all collapsed from within. What is not mentioned are the other reasons for collapse, for example, corruption and military .Buchholz also examines the many crises in our globalised world, crises such as: the Argentina crash of 2002, the world stock market crash of 2008, and Iceland bankruptcy. All the crises, he argues, were fomented by the entropic forces.His five key forces of disorder are: falling birth rates, globalised trade, rising debt, eroding work ethics, and the challenge of patriotism in a multicultural nation. Regarding birth rates, Italy, said its health minister recently, is a dying country and many other states are below the required replacement rate of 2.1. It is estimated that the west's population will halve every generation or so. He says in the wealthy First World, children are now like luxury items. He is dismissive of benefit handouts, pointing out that for every factory worker in the US there is another at home on disability benefits. Mass migration from high birthrate nations is one solution. In the Yemen for example, the birthrate is 5.9. But, says the author, the trouble with this solution is that the migrants may chose not to acquire western values. So far, the vast majority have not done so. Many prefer, perhaps understandably, to form ghettos. Also, even if immigration alleviated or solved the birthrate problem, other serious problems will almost certainly emerge. We are witnessing some of these already.Do read this book. It is one of the most important books of the past several years. It is superior in many ways to : Kennedy's Rise and Fall, Piketty's Capital, and Robinson's Why Nations Fail. This book addresses the problem not of poor nations but of prosperous ones that are undergoing 'splintering'. You will be hard put not to find copious examples in the book that mirror this country.A very worrying book that is a superb blend of research into economic and historical factors that are undermining rich nations. The splintering forces are, says Buchholz, spawning populist movements in the US, in Britain and in other European countries. The Brexit vote is one indicator of this. Another is the attempt to ursurp the position of elected representatives in Parliament. The author puts forward a tough diagnosis of the problems we are facing, problems exacerbated by new technologies. Todd believes the best way to avoid collapse is to foster unity and civic pride. He quotes examples which include Alexander the Great and Yugoslavia. Immigrants, he argues, should be encouraged to visit historical artefacts and all places in a country that celebrate its past. This may sound too optimistic but it's a start.
0 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
By Partial Mind
A theory in search of data doesn't make a great book. This is an awkward mash up of pop history and tirade
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
By John E Edwards
History has a knack of repeating itself and here we are about to experience what has gone before centuries ago. An excellent read and rather worryingly thought provoking.
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